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Just two days before the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – going beyond who would win citywide, but precinct by precinct. Lange, a political analyst born and raised in New York City, has spent more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into city data and voter surveys.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while failed to predict the independent candidate’s strong performance – on his newsletter, his platform. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, running from Park Slope to another area to a third locale, where he forecasted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by large leads, and the “capitalist corridor” on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers surpass the mainstream paper” in audience and the majority of electors favored the independent, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Election Night Patterns and Unexpected Results

What was your election night?

It was necessary because they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the system every few minutes! I felt a little nervous initially: Mamdani was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but came large groups of votes that came in later and the advantage went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, there was a world where election day turned out kind of poorly for him, where Cuomo would have basically doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However the winner added 500,000 votes to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He went out and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect get those extra votes from?

He assembled the coalition that the left long aimed for: it’s multiracial, it’s young, it’s renters and it’s people facing cost pressures. He improved considerably with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Plus he boosted his core of left-leaning activists, young leftists, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: multiracial, youthful, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

Additionally, there were some supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, Asian communities and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president previously went for Zohran this year. But it’s not that he was winning over white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the election was the sky-high turnout. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was much greater than anticipated. I thought it could exceed two million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. There was a decent anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was also motivated, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now it appears he’s likely to get over half. He has 50.4% but there’s still probably 200,000 votes left to report as of Wednesday morning. So it’s not it’s definitive, but I believe probable, and I wish he achieves it so then no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His vote plummeted.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Including Tottenville in the borough, which is like an highly conservative area. That really was unexpected. Cuomo kept very white areas, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and then added all of these conservatives on the island with a high participation. I believe there was significant strategic balloting by the Republicans. This happened before Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome if the winning alliance hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned “commie corridor” – was support for the candidate dominant in those parts of the boroughs?

I think existed some weakening of the commie corridor in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, instance, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported the independent. So there existed a little resistance. However overall, mostly the leftist base is a key factor why Zohran prevailed – he scored between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Jewish Voters

In the lead-up to the vote we reported on if Mamdani was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

There are areas with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – such as Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he performed strongly. But in the wealthy Jewish communities like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance was influential in those places. Similarly in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned Cuomo. And also, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were pretty staunchly supportive. Therefore I don’t know if existed major surprises here, but Mamdani did hold left-leaning areas and even parts of the another locale with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York represents in politics? Will the progressive base become a launch pad for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest political leaders from progressives come from a few areas in the boroughs. I believe that there will be more of that – people will come from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

But I think that every city in the US can have their own commie corridor. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in the nation – since they’re young, people rent and they represent locales where individuals struggle by the disparities we face.