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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward script. It commonly serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the biggest upset.

Yet the latest field is fundamentally different. The list of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners falling away and longtime also-rans ascending in unison. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that frees wide-open targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a normal season!

The area where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

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