A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
